Indian exporters performed much better in 2024 than many expected despite grappling with geopolitical and other uncertainties, according to Biswajit Dhar, Distinguished Professor, Council for Social Development. The year 2025, however, holds more challenges, most significantly in the form of `Trump tariffs’, he said in an interview with businessline. Excerpts: 

How would you rate the performance of Indian export sector in 2024? 

 Beyond expectations, given the geopolitical and other uncertainties. The turnaround that we are seeing in October is quite interesting and is expected to provide momentum going forward.  But India’s growth also seems patchy. Some months are good, others not. Some sectors are doing well while others are lagging behind. 

Will export growth be sustainable in 2025? 

I should think so, if the latest numbers are any indicator. This is just the beginning of the festival season. One can always hope that the momentum will be carried forward. But there are some sectors one is not happy about, like garments. One would have thought after the Bangladesh political turmoil and their industry going into a tailspin, the Indian garment industry would find its feet and take advantage of the situation. But it didn’t happen.  

Do you think Trump’s proposed tariff measures against China, much higher than on others like India, could provide opportunities for Indian exports? 

Of course, the misery that Donald Trump will heap on China would provide opportunities for us. We have to look at a larger penetration of the US market, because hopefully in 2025 interest rates would come down and this could spur further growth in the US economy.  

As far as taking advantage of China’s misery is concerned, we need to reflect on a whole lot of problems we have had in the past in terms of our whole logistics and the bottlenecks that our exporters face. These have to be looked at by the government carefully because we are losing opportunities. And that’s a shame.