From THE DAILY SCEPTIC

by Chris Morrison

Dramatic evidence has been published in a number of recent science papers that carbon dioxide levels are already ‘saturated’, meaning little or no further warming is to be expected and rising CO₂ levels are all beneficial.

Half of human emissions are being quickly pushed back into the biosphere, the scientists say, causing substantial, famine-busting plant growth, while the rest is entering a ‘saturated’ atmosphere and having a minimal effect on global temperatures. One of the papers accepting the human involvement in rising CO₂ is published by the CO₂ Coalition, which notes: “We like CO₂, so should you.”

None of this work will be reported in the mainstream since it disrupts a ‘settled’ climate science narrative tied to the political Net Zero fantasy. But the opinion that humans control the climate thermostat by releasing CO₂, leading to runaway temperatures, belongs to a dark period in science when it was captured to promote political aims. However, work continues in sceptical climate circles to understand how a number of gases with warming properties behave in a chaotic, non-linear atmosphere. Two recently-published papers found that doubling CO₂ in the atmosphere led to minimal temperature increases. The calculated figures can be considered to be in margin of error territory and on past observational evidence they pose no threat to the climate on Earth. They also destroy the shaky scientific foundation upon which Net Zero rests.

Eight Taiwanese scientists led by Professor Peng-Sheng Wei found that the sensitivity of the climate to a rise in CO₂ atmospheric levels from 100 to 400 parts per million (ppm) was “negligibly small” at 0.3°C. The paper is complex and examines heat transfers as a function of longitude, latitude and altitude “as well as diffuse radiation determined by absorption bands based on wavelength, temperature and the concentration or pressure of carbon dioxide vapour”. What the scientists are looking at here is the narrow absorption bands within the infrared (IR) spectrum that allow ‘greenhouse’ gases to trap heat and warm the planet. Many argue that after a certain level the gases ‘saturate’ and lose most of their warming properties. One simple way to understand this is to observe that doubling insulation in a loft will not trap twice as much heat. The saturation hypothesis would appear to explain how CO₂ has been 10-15 times higher in the past without runaway temperatures, while the anthropogenic warming opinion does little more than provide scientific cover for a dodgy but fashionable extreme eco scare.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claims a climate sensitivity number based on doubling CO₂ levels of around 3°C. But many climate models ramp up mass public hysteria by using ‘pathways’ with much larger and highly improbably estimates. The latter form the basis of numerous ‘scientists say’ stories faithfully reported by unquestioning mainstream media. The Taiwanese scientists found that ground temperature warming of 0.3°C was associated with the increase from 100 ppm to 350 ppm and there was no additional warming at all as CO₂ rose further from 350 ppm to 400 ppm. The current level of CO₂ in the atmosphere is 420 ppm.

Seven Austrian scientists have also recently concentrated on CO₂ and the infrared spectrum, noting that a future doubling of the gas up to 800 ppm “shows no increase in the IR absorption for the 15 u-central peak”. It is concluded that this can lead to 0.5°C warming at most. The scientists argue that climate models and their CO₂ influences should be revised. Much more experimental evidence about IR radiation should be collected “before appointing current warming trends and climate change mechanisms monocausal to greenhouse gas theories”.

The recent papers on CO₂ saturation are not the only ones to have been published lately. Earlier this year a group of Polish scientists led by Dr. Jan Kubicki supplied three papers arguing that above 400 ppm, “the CO₂ concentration can no longer cause any increase in temperature”. In 2023, three scientists including Atmospheric Professor Yi Huang of McGill University stated that: “Transmission in the CO₂ band centre is unchanged by increased CO₂ as the absorption is already saturated.” In Chen et al. 2023, it is reported that CO₂ had a severely reduced warming effect past pre-industrial concentrations. It was also noted that water vapour and cloud influences overlap and thus dominate absorption in the CO₂ IR band. In 2022, the German Physics Professor Dieter Schildnecht set the CO₂ saturation level at just 300 ppm.

The CO₂ Coalition is an educational foundation that says it provides facts, resources and information about the “vital role” CO₂ plays in the environment. It recently published a detailed paper that accepted humans had contributed most of the CO₂ that has entered the atmosphere in industrial times. The paper is sub-titled: “How human emissions are restoring vital atmospheric CO₂.” The coalition has long promoted the role that saturation plays in tempering the effect of a number of gases with warming properties. Attention is often drawn in its work to the part played by water vapour that makes up around 4% of the atmosphere and contributes as much as 80% of the Earth’s vital warming. It saturates over large parts of the IR spectrum, reducing the effect of other gases in their own specific bands. The coalition’s board includes the distinguished Professor William Happer, who has long argued the merits of the saturation hypothesis, and it was recently joined by the 2022 Nobel Physics Laureate Dr. John Clauser.

Levels of CO₂ have been much higher in the past, with evidence of vibrant animal and plant life. Many plants evolved to thrive with higher levels than they feed on today, a period some scientists argue is one of CO₂ denudation. In its recently published paper, the coalition observes that the higher the CO₂ content in the atmosphere, the greater the pressure from physical processes to drive CO₂ into the oceans and vegetation.

This is borne out by considerable evidence, although the recent substantial ‘greening’ of the planet is largely hidden from readers reliant on mainstream media. In fact the new ‘green revolution’ is feeding the world. The authors of a recent science paper, Charles Taylor and Wolfram Schlenker, state: “We consistently find a large fertilisation effect; a 1 ppm increase in CO₂ equates to a 0.4%, 0.6%, 1% yield increase for corn, soybean and wheat respectively.” The heavy greening of the Earth can be seen in a map first published in Donohue/CSIRO 2015 and republished in another recent paper from the CO₂ Coalition. This examined the nutritive value of plants growing in enhanced CO₂ concentrations.

The map was produced from satellite leaf data and shows that greening between 1982-2012 grew by 20-30% in India, West Australia, the Sahel and the Anatolian highlands. A more recent paper Chen et al. 2024 found that greening had actually accelerated in the last two decades. The increase in CO₂ was found to be the dominant driver of the positive trend of the Leaf Area Index over most of the global land surface.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

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