American consumers will spend a record-breaking $537 billion on new apps, devices, and gadgets in 2025, according to the new one-year forecast from the Consumer Technology Association.

But there’s a catch, warned the CTA’s futurist Brian Comiskey on stage Monday at the group’s enormous Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas: Trump’s proposed tariff plans, which would raise costs for U.S. consumers, could squash a lot of that spending.

The CTA “is projecting that there will be record retail revenues” for the U.S. consumer technology industry in 2025 with 3.2% growth over 2024. However, Comiskey warned that those projections could change because “smartphones and laptops are threatened by President elect Trump’s tariff proposals. Tariffs on technology products could lead to a $90-$143 billion — billion with a B — decline in U.S. purchasing power,” he said.

In October, the CTA released a report that looked at two tariff proposals specifically: A 10% or 20% tariff on all imports from all countries, and a 60% tariff on all imports from China.

It concluded that these proposals could increase prices on laptops and tablets by 46%, video game consoles by 40%, and smartphones by 26%.

On stage, Comiskey offered additional color, explaining that spending on “tablets and laptops could decline as much as 68%, gaming consoles as much as 58%, and smartphones up to 37%.”

Without such tariffs, the consumer tech industry is heading towards a spending “super cycle” as Comiskey called it. This is partly because only the newest PCs, tablets, and smartphones can access new AI-powered features such as Apple Intelligence, or Microsoft Copilot+ on PCs. The CTA’s research indicates that consumers want those features. Most consumers say they are familiar with generative AI and many say they have already used it at work.

Meanwhile, AI is also juicing up many classic consumer tech categories, from fitness trackers to smart TVs (like a newly announced product from Google), to parent tech like electronic baby rockers. 

Whether the AI in these products truly makes the gadget worthwhile may not matter. Because the final thing that points to 2025 being a big year for gadgets is the rise in Gen Z’s purchasing power. In 2025, 27% of the global workforce is expected to be Gen Z, Udemy predicts. That’s the generation that most loves new tech and enjoys being early adopters.