Target: ₹950

CMP: ₹780.05

Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) posted 3 per cent y-o-y/20 per cent q-o-q higher wholesales in Q3 to 104K units (despite the temporary discontinuation of Jaguar in the UK), along with the best-ever model mix; share of Range Rover, Range Rover Sport, and Defender rose to 70 per cent (vs 67/62 per cent in Q2FY25/Q3FY24).

Largely normalised production and a strong mix are seen driving sharp q-o-q margin improvement at JLR (15 per cent vs 11.7/15.8 per cent in Q2/Q1). Elsewhere, India’s CV outlook is improving (albeit gradually, amid slower than anticipated public capex uptick), while India’s PV outlook remains soft despite the recent Curvv SUV launch, with emerging EV competition slated to impact TTMT’s positioning.

For Tata Motors, JLR improvement continues along expected lines, with the company on track for about £1 billion FCF this year, along with a net-cash balance sheet, India CV space is also seen recovering (albeit gradually, amid delay in public capex uptick), further accompanied by better profitability, and India PV outlook is soft amid growth concerns and rising EV competition

We trim India PV EPS by about 4.5/2.5 per cent for FY26E/27E (driving 1.6 per cent lower FY27E consol EPS), and introduce a 20 per cent discount in the target multiple for India PVs (about 1.3x Dec-26E EV/S vs about 1.7x for MSIL); after roll-over to Dec-26, our revised SoTP-based TP is ₹950.