Motilal Oswal Private Wealth believes that investors should go for a staggered investment in equity with a large-cap bias and consider lumpsum investment if the market falls 7-8 per cent.

Indian markets are expected to remain volatile in the first half of this year due to several global and domestic events, including the new Trump administration’s policies, China’s measures to counter trade tariffs and its possible implications for emerging market currencies and the upcoming Indian Union Budget.

These events are anticipated to create uncertainty in the near term. However, as these events unfold and greater clarity emerges, market volatility is expected to subside in the latter half of the year. The wealth management firm, which manages Rs 1.57 lakh crore, is also bullish on gold with concern of inflation worries reviving in the US.

The outlook for gold remains positive with the share of the US dollar in global reserve currencies has been on downtrend over last 10 years and is likely to continue, central banks increasing quantum of gold in their forex reserves, geopolitical uncertainties and further depreciation of the Rupee against the dollar will make gold more attractive in rupee terms.

Despite the recent slowdown in GDP, Motilal Oswal Wealth Management said it remains optimistic about India’s growth due to its macroeconomic stability, supported by significant foreign exchange reserves and a regulated twin deficit.

It expects GDP growth to improve compared to the modest growth reported in the second quarter of FY25.

Ashish Shanker, MD & CEO, MOPW said this year will bring its share of uncertainty as the new US president gets sworn in. After years of good performance the US markets also looks tired.

This calls for moderation in expectations and a sharp focus on risk management through asset allocation, he added.

After tepid corporate earnings and slow GDP growth in Q2 FY25, MOPW recommends closely monitoring the upcoming earnings season and GDP growth trajectory.

“We expect this trend to reverse and expect large caps to do better this year given the valuation comfort. In the longer term, earning growth and stock returns should converge. Considering this, it seems small cap stocks have run up way ahead of earnings growth in most of the segments,” he said.