Share Market Highlights 16 January 2024: Sensex gains 319 pts, Nifty settles above 23,300; Adani Group stocks rally

CLSA On HDFC Life

Outperform Call, Target Cut To Rs690/Sh

Financial Performance Healthy, But Weak Sentiment Could Persist

No Communication On Banca Mix Capping, Only On Tightening Processes

Growth Slowdown In Q3

Good Financial Performance, Chaotic Regulatory Landscape

Jefferies on HDFC Life

Buy Call, Target At Rs750/Sh

Q3 Results Were Better Than Expected

Despite Softer Premium Growth, VNB Was Aided By Better Product Mix

Clarity On Banca Norms Is Limited And This Will Be Key For Visibility Of Growth & Rerating

Investec on HDFC Life

Maintain Buy, TP 850

Major positive surprise on margins

Banca concerns allayed to some extent

Cut enterprise value by 2% due to downgrades to economic variance

Management mentioned margin improvement is sustainable

Macquarie on HDFC Life

Maintain Neutral, TP 570

Muted VNB growth primarliy driven by lower APE growth

VNB margins revert to 26% levels

APE growth moderation was broadbased

Expect HDFC Life to meet its 17% VNB guidance

HSBC On HDFC Life

Buy Call, Target At Rs750/Sh

Sequential Margin Improvement Was Higher Than Expected In Q3

Focus On New Customer Acquisition And Deepening Distribution Should Aid Growth

Margin Has Bottomed Out As Incremental Mix Change On Low Margin Linked Pdts Would Slow Down

Margin Has Bottomed Out As Sales Of Credit Protection Improve

Margin Would Improve In A Rate-Cut Cycle As They Are Negatively Correlated

HSBC On L&T Tech

Buy Call, Target At Rs6,000/Sh

Q3 Was A Decent With Marginal Downward Revision In FY25 Guidance, Which Is Challenging

Intelliswift Integration Is Margin Dilutive & A Downside Risk To Consensus

Better-than-expected Synergies Would Be A Positive

Think Co Has One Of Best ER&D Capabilities In Sector & Reasonable Relative Valuations

Nomura On L&T Tech

Neutral Call, Target At Rs4,900/Sh

Strong Performance At Both Revenue And Margin Levels Was Seen In Q3 Results

Deal Wins Strong, Pipeline Is Robust

FY25 Guidance Tweaked To 8% Organic Growth (From 8-10% Earlier)

EBIT Margin To Improve Gradually Over FY26-27

Stock Currently Trades At 27.8x FY27 EPS

Citi On L&T Tech

Sell Call, Target At Rs4,435/Sh

Q3 Revenue & EBIT Were Slightly Better Than Expected

Forward Looking Indicators Include Revenue Guidance (Including Acquisition)

Revised Organic Guidance Is Also Forward Looking

Highest Ever Large Deal Bookings, As Per Mgmt, On Back Of A Weak Q2

Macquarie on LTTS

Maintain Underperform, TP 4310

Good growth in Technology vertical; record deal wins

Acquisition of Intelliswift pivots the portfolio towards the faster-growing Digital Software Engineering segment

Anticipates challenges in automotive to continue for a couple more quarters

Continue to see IT Services firms as growing faster than ER&D firms

Continue to prefer Persistent Systems over LTTS

Nuvama on LTTS

Maintain Hold, TP 4852

Mixed Q3FY25 results

Management commentary was upbeat amidst record-high deal-wins

FY25 guidance is largely maintained—now expecting ~10% growth

Margin guidance has been pushed further down due to Intelliswift acquisition.

Cutting FY25E/26E EPS by -2%/-5% on lower other income due to acquisition

Macquarie On HDFC Bank

Outperform Call, Target At Rs2,300/Sh

HDB Fin’s Q3 Credit Cost Is Inching Up

PpOP Growth For HDB Fin Was In Line With Loan Growth

Believe The Increase In Credit Costs Could Be Probably Attributed To Stress In Unsecured Segment

There Is Some Stress In The Commercial Vehicle And Construction Equipment Portfolio

Credit Cost Trends For Players With High Unsecured & CV/CE Exposure Has Seen Rising Trajectory In H1

UBS on FY26 Budget

Government to continue with consolidation

Revenue collection to marginally improve in line with nominal GDP

Key focus: capex, consumption and employment but within fiscal boundaries

Muted impact on equities

If FY26 capex is budgeted at around Rs11 trn (similar to the FY25 budgeted capex), it would be negative for L&T

10-year government bond yield to decline to 6.25% in FY26E

BofA on FY26 Budget

India well placed to hit its fiscal targets

Fiscal deficit set to dip to 4.5% of GDP

Rising dilemma between fiscal prudence and growth needs

Capex prioritized, but capacity issues coming to the fore

Revenue growth may maintain a steady pace

Debt not deficits could be the mantra going forward

Fiscal policy easing likely to be on flow, lagged on stock

GDP growth partly hinges on capex spending coming back

MS on MGL

Maintain Overweight, TP 1606

Share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 30 days

Play on increasing miles traveled in Mumbai

Four-wheeler CNG conversions outperform

6% EPS CAGR for F25-F28e and 16% sustainable RoCE

See attractive risk-reward.

HSBC On Agro Inputs

2025 Chemicals Industry Outlook Is Subdued

There Are Pockets Of Opportunities In Certain Segments

Expect Challenges To Persist In 2025, But US Mkt May Be The Bright Spot As Demand Has Improved

Reiterate Buy On UPL & Hold On PI Industries

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