Toncoin (TON) could be on the verge of a significant price surge, according to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant. A key indicator is signaling that TON is entering a low-risk phase, which might present an opportunity for strategic accumulation, CryptoQuant stated in its recent tweet.

The Normalized Risk Metric (NRM) for TON, both in the medium and long term, is approaching the blue zone. This metric is calculated by comparing the current price with exponential moving averages (SMA 50 and SMA 374 days), which are then adjusted for risk variations using logarithmic factors.

When the Normalized Risk Metric (NRM) turns blue, it might indicate that the asset is in an attractive price zone for purchases. In these zones, the market is often in an accumulation phase, which typically precedes significant upward movements. This suggests a low-risk period, and based on historical data and observed patterns, these periods of minimal exposure frequently precede fresh upward price movement.

Other Toncoin metrics are flashing bullish. In a recent report, CryptoQuant highlighted that the New Adoption Rate of the TON blockchain has gone up again as more new users join the network. This represents an increase in the number of new addresses making their first transactions, indicating that the TON ecosystem is growing and attracting new users daily.

TON price action

Toncoin has been trading in a broad range since late August. Bulls revived a price surge in late November, propelling TON to highs of $7.20 by early December. The price eventually fell, with TON returning to its previous range.

At the time of writing, TON was up 1.93% in the last 24 hours to $5.63, reflecting the general crypto market recovery following a significant sell-off earlier in the week.

Toncoin began to rise after hitting support at a low of $4.99 on Jan. 13 and is now on track to see three out of four days in the green since then.

Moving upward, a decisive break above the daily SMA 50 at $5.883 might kickstart a fresh bullish move for Toncoin, with targets of $6 and $7, or perhaps higher.

On the other hand, support lies within the $4.50 and $5 range in the event of a price decline. The daily RSI near the midpoint also suggests that TON might consolidate for a little while in the short term before making its next major move.