As air temperatures get hotter with climate change, urban fires will get more common, with New Zealand seeing over 40% more city fires by 2100 with unmitigated warming of over 4°C, according to new overseas research.

Researchers studied fires and monthly maximum air temperatures from over 2800 cities in 20 countries, covering over 20% of the world’s population. With unmitigated warming of over 4°C, the researchers estimate this would lead to a third of a million more fire deaths globally and over a million more injuries from 2020 to 2100—but if warming is kept below 1.5°C, those deaths could be halved.

The SMC asked third-party New Zealand-based experts to comment.

Gabby Peck, Fire Research Scientist, BRANZ, comments:

“The study has some enlightening findings: Even if global warming is capped at 1.5°C worldwide, we could still face a significant increase in fire-related injuries. An important point to note is that these values are very likely on the lower end of the ‘real risk’. Studies like this tend to rely on data taken from first responders and, because of differing collection methods across the world, can vary in accuracy, reporting consistency and completeness. This means the ‘real values’ can be higher than the reported ones.

“I would also be interested to see how human behaviour impacts these findings. In urban fires, the amount of combustible material in each house differs, as do construction materials, how well residents maintain fire safety systems and types of ignition sources. These all factor into urban fire risk.

“One key takeaway here is that we need to be proactive in our approach to preparing our cities for a new future. BRANZ has built a new, state-of-the-art fire laboratory that will develop more proactive approaches. The new lab can simulate a range of real-world, urban fire scenarios. We’ll be able to trial, measure and release findings that will help reduce the impact of fire risks like this report has exposed.”

No conflicts of interest.

Professor Bruce Glavovic, School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University, comments:

“Urban fire incidents are increasing worldwide. Shi et al (2025) are the first to quantify the projected frequency of various urban fire incidents in response to anthropogenic warming. Their data shows that New Zealand is the most exposed of 20 countries studied to certain types of urban fire risk, including increased building fire risk. We face a more than 40% expected increase in urban fire frequency variation for every 1°C increase in temperature. This study is just one of many on escalating climate-compounded fire risk, a topic that needs more focused attention in New Zealand.

“Expanding human settlements and intensifying wildfires are putting more people and infrastructure in peril at the wildland-urban interface, including in Aotearoa New Zealand, viz. the 2017 and 2024 Port Hills Fires, among others, and the Waipoua River fire with evacuated residents hoping to return home last Sunday night [2 March 2025].

“Effective responses to contain fires are essential but by no means sufficient. Fire resilience requires a more joined-up cross-sectoral, multi-disciplinary approach that involves fire and emergency management services working together with planners, policymakers, forestry and agriculture, and community development specialists, tangata whenua, local government and at-risk communities.

“Wildfires have more devastating impacts on socially vulnerable communities and focused attention is needed to better understand which New Zealand communities face more pronounced fire risk and how to build upon and strengthen local capabilities.

“We must stop new development in fire-prone areas, especially at the wildland-urban interface. We need to better understand New Zealand-specific drivers of wildfires so that risk reduction and resilience-building measures can be strengthened. Fire resilience and adaptation include structural protection to reduce wildfire losses; setting aside defensible spaces; effective insurance provisions; strategically prescribed burns; fuel breaks, fuel thinning and mastication; fire resilient building design and construction; community-based warning and evacuation procedures; and reducing disparities in fire mitigation and post-fire recovery for socially vulnerable populations.

“Land-use planning plays a vital role in fire resilience but has received little attention in New Zealand. We can learn from bushfire experience in Australia and elsewhere. Research that Maria Kornakova and I did after the 2017 Port Hills fires identified measures to institutionalise wildfire planning in Aotearoa New Zealand, informed in part by the 2009 Victoria bushfire experience, including how to: (1) reduce wildfire risk; (2) mobilise and integrate domains of professional practice relevant to wildfire planning; (3) develop community-based wildfire planning capability; and (4) meet the needs of current and future generations by institutionalising wildfire resilient development pathways at New Zealand’s wildland-urban interface. These recommendations remain urgent and compelling given pitiful progress in in institutionalising wildfire planning in New Zealand, even though this research was published in 2018.”

No conflicts of interest.

Professor Ruggiero Lovreglio, School of Built Environment, Massey University, comments:

“This latest study, published in Nature Cities, clearly highlights that climate change is significantly increasing urban fire risks, with outdoor and vehicle fires projected to surge worldwide. The alarming findings show that New Zealand is among the most affected countries, with fire incidents expected to rise by over 40% by 2100 under extreme climate scenarios. Is it time to get ready? Absolutely, if we want to avoid devastating urban disasters.

“This growing threat demands immediate action to make our cities safer and mitigate the impact of fires on human lives and property. We must rethink fire safety training and evacuation planning. New technologies can play a crucial role in preparing for these alarming scenarios. Our latest research at Massey University demonstrates that Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) can significantly enhance fire safety training by improving knowledge retention and response effectiveness. As traditional methods may not fully prepare people for climate-driven fire hazards, VR and AR allow users to experience realistic fire emergencies, ensuring they are better equipped to react effectively.

“However, training alone is not enough. New Zealand must also strengthen its performance-based codes for evacuation, ensuring that fire safety regulations account for the increasing risks posed by climate change. Future building and urban design must integrate advanced evacuation modeling and human behavior research to optimize escape strategies in complex fire scenarios. Our research at Massey University is generating critical new data to support this effort, particularly by studying evacuation emergencies in high-risk environments such as hospitals, libraries, and retirement homes.

“Tackling urban fire risks effectively requires more than just technological solutions, it demands a multidisciplinary approach. Integrating expertise from engineering, environmental science, and social sciences is essential to developing strategies that are not only technically sound but also socially effective. By combining cutting-edge science with community-driven initiatives, New Zealand can build a safer, more resilient future in the face of increasing urban fire threats.”

Conflict of interest statement: “I have received multiple funding from the National Institute of Standard and Technology (US Federal Government), FENZ and MBIE to investigate wildfires in NZ and the USA and provide solutions to mitigate wildfire risk and build community resilience.”

John Tookey, Professor of Construction, AUT University, comments:

“The press release and accompanying academic paper make interesting reading. The thesis of the paper is somewhat complex. Amongst various different strands explored (including building fires, vegetation fires, outdoor fires and vehicle fires), the observations can be summarised to the following. Global warming will dry things out. This creates fuel vapour and dry combustible materials, which in combination create a higher prevalence of fires. This effect will be more prevalent in temperate, ‘moist’ regions than drier ones. In addition, lower elevations are more susceptible than higher elevations. Furthermore, higher outdoor temperatures are likely to drive people indoors. People being indoors tends to reduce the prevalence of building fires since any occurrences tend to get extinguished rapidly by building occupants. The paper is on the face of it alarming, since it highlights some significant negative changes in particular in New Zealand.

“It is noticeable from the data analysis and projected future trends that the two highest projected increases in outdoor fires include New Zealand and Finland as outliers. No surprises there. We share much in common as nations. Generally a cooler, moist environment with lots of trees. Given that drier, warmer conditions are likely to result in more dry timber and slash making for more easily spreading fire. In addition, New Zealand generally has a low lying population. Most citizens live relatively close to the ocean at low elevations, with the central highlands of both of our islands being sparsely populated. So the future contains more brush fires for us. Conversely, New Zealand also appears as the country with the highest reduction in building fires in the future, as we begin to live a more indoor life. So generally less house and general property fires. The categories of outdoor fires and vehicle fires are somewhat more ambiguous. Analysis of the data projects increases in both types – but to a lesser degree than the extreme outliers.

“The somewhat contradictory observations need explanation and providing with context. At present, New Zealand has a virtually zero rate of fatalities in bush fires, vehicle fires and outdoor fires. Therefore doubling the rate (as projected in the paper) of vegetation fires, and increases in the other categories will have minimal increase in fatalities. However, inevitably there will be a much higher level of property damage to be anticipated. Conversely the existing rate of fire fatalities in New Zealand is circa 4 per year, notwithstanding outlier events such as Loafers Lodge in 2023. So the projected paper findings would actually likely see a slight reduction in annual fire fatalities as a result. Overall, strictly on the basis of fatalities, there is little difference likely to be seen in New Zealand figures.

“Notwithstanding which, there is absolutely no reason to adopt an ‘I’m all right Jack’ approach going forward. In truth the effects likely to be seen are much more complex and interrelated than this paper describes. For example, we are seeing a much-increased rate of migration from the country to the towns and cities throughout the country. What effect will that have? Auckland in particular is going to see huge growth of up to 400k additional people before the end of the century. What effects will this have on water pressure and availability for firefighting? We already see significant numbers of non-fatal fire related incidents for various reasons. Actually at a much higher rate than the average ratio of 5 fatalities to 17 injuries. Any way in which we can reduce or mitigate the effects has to be worthwhile addressing.

“From a policy perspective, the findings do have significant value.

Vegetation fires

“It is clear that there will be an increasing propensity for bush fires in thinly populated areas throughout New Zealand. This can be done in several ways:

• Firstly in ensuring fire breaks are rigorously established, potentially widened and increased in frequency in managed forestry.
• Secondly, increasing the frequency of underbrush removal in order to reduce the fuel load in forestry.
• Thirdly, increase the planning distance between the edge of forestry and any housing or property.
• Fourth, it is therefore likely that as a nation we will have to invest in rapidly deployable, long range fire fighting systems that can be moved around the country as required. This is most likely to rely at its core on an increased number of helicopters equipped with monsoon buckets and similar. In addition the need to invest over the longer term in fixed wing systems that deploy either water or chemical suppressants.

Vehicle fires

“The incidence of vehicle fires is generally low. Notwithstanding which additional measures around WOF standards could be introduced. Most credibly could be a legislative standard to either incorporate a factory fitted fire suppressions system. More credibly (and cost effectively) to require the inclusion of a fire extinguisher in standard equipment carried by vehicles to pass WOF.

Outdoor fires

“Largely there are significant rules in place to reduce prevalence of outdoor fires that can be prone to becoming dangerous. The system of fire permits could be tightened if there was felt to be a need.  Realistically there are limits about what could be achieved through legislation in a high trust society.

Building fires

“Building design and specifications continually evolve in response to ongoing and emergent issues in fire regulations. Consequently, rates of fire occurrences versus population is continually going down. The conditions for this are reinforced by the need for reflection injury and loss of life. As a society we are compelled to learn from our loses. For example, the use of aluminium/plastic composite cladding and other construction products was reassessed worldwide in response to the 2017 fire in London’s Grenfell Tower, and is ongoing. In NZ we are still dealing with the recommendations made after Loafer’s Lodge and similar. Therefore it is likely that if anything rates of building fires outlined in the Nature Cities report will likely reduce in the coming years as a result of improved fire suppression technology and uptake.”

No conflicts of interest.