Arthur Hayes, the CIO at Maelstrom Fund, said that he firmly believes the Bitcoin bull market cycle is still ongoing. He added that the worst bottom would be the historical high of the previous cycle, which was $70K.

In his latest blog post, Hayes disclosed that he was not sure whether Bitcoin prices would drop that low (to $70K), adding that he expected Bitcoin’s fall to around $80K to provide an opportunity for another entry if this round of increase was just a ‘dead cat bounce.’ He also said that traders would cautiously buy on dips, avoid leverage, and patiently wait for the final violent fluctuations in the fiat financial markets regardless of how the market changed.

According to Fidelity Investments, we were now 28 months into the current crypto bull market after Bitcoin’s price made a bear market bottom in November 2022. The investment firm noted that Bitcoin’s price was up over 400% from its November 2022 bear market lows despite the drop at the end of February. Fidelity noted that while no one was able to tell the future, it was helpful to consider that crypto bull markets historically tended to run for just under 3 years before entering a new bear market. 

Fidelity also claimed that we could be in the mature phase of this bull cycle if the market continued to follow this pattern, but past performance was not a guarantee of future results. However, the research director at Fidelity Digital Assets Chris Kuiper asserted that it was too late for the speculators who wanted another frenzy for this cycle.

Hayes expresses unwavering belief in the ongoing Bitcoin bull market

🔥 Hot: Arthur Hayes’ Latest Blog: The crypto market is still in a bull cycle, and Trump’s artificial recession will force the Fed to cut rates.

Arthur Hayes believes we are still in a bull cycle, with BTC potentially retracing to $70,000 in the worst-case scenario.

— Coin8 Exchange (@Coin8_Exchange) March 4, 2025

Hayes postulated that the crypto market was still in a bull market cycle. He claimed that Bitcoin was expected to break through $1 million or even higher as the global economy recovered under the leadership of the United States. Karel Mercx, investment specialist at Beleggers Belange, also agreed with Hayes’ that we were still in a bull market. Merxc said that the recent breakdown was a fake-out, but now the expected scenario is a breakout to the upside in the coming weeks or months. 

Hayes, however, observed that the global market might experience ‘synchronized adjustment’ if the S&P 500 index or the Nasdaq 100 index dropped 20% to 30% from their historical highs. He believes that at that time, all risk assets will be sold off together, and Bitcoin will likely fall below $80K again or even retrace to $70K. The crypto asset could witness more ‘bloodshed’ before consolidating. 

The crypto entrepreneur revealed on Friday morning that he was tempted to add more risk to his holdings, although he figured that Bitcoin could see one more violent wave below $80K upon further analysis of the crypto asset’s price action. He said that there would be “crickets for a while” after the violent wave, meaning that Bitcoin would consolidate and trade range-bound for some time.

Hayes doubts whether Trump’s strategic Bitcoin reserve will work out as planned

Hayes said he doubts Donald Trump’s administration will get around to creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a policy many crypto enthusiasts were pinning their hopes on. However, he added that he hoped he was wrong regarding the implementation of a Bitcoin reserve. He pointed to the limited time frame before the midterm elections, which could restrict the ability to implement substantial policy changes, as well as the fact there were many other things to allocate time and money to.

Hayes pointed out that he was sure Trump wanted to finance his “America First” policies through debt, arguing that Trump had ‘so much borrowing capacity’ before he destroyed the bond market. He wondered whether Trump would borrow funds to buy more Bitcoin, give health care to the seniors who voted him in, or build more bombs so that the defense lobby likes him.

“I don’t think Trump will get around to doing a bitcoin reserve.” – Arthur Hayes 

The former BitMEX boss said there were many different things Trump could borrow money to spend it on, adding that he did not think Trump was going to spend it on Bitcoin.

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Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/arthur-hayes-we-still-in-a-bull-cycle/