It has been a tumultuous couple of months at the Indian bourses. After hitting a record high of 26,277 points on September 27, the broad market benchmark NSE Nifty had tumbled 11.5 per cent to a little over 23,000 points by November 21.

This was the longest secular losing streak for the top 50-shares’ market gauge since June 2022. A lot of factors appeared to be pulling down Dalal Street momentum, including the surprisingly weak second quarter results for listed Indian firms, foreign investors recalibrating portfolios towards China as it sought to stimulate its way through a rough patch and anticipated adverse implications for world trade after Donald Trump won his way back to the White House.

November 21 also marked the day the markets got to know about an U.S. Court indictment of some Adani Green Energy officials after a Department of Justice probe into allegations that included securities fraud, wire fraud as well as bribery, with civil charges separately initiated by the U.S. market regulator.

In the eleven trading sessions since then, or between November 22 and December 6, the tide has shifted – with the Nifty gaining in nine of the 11 sessions. By last Thursday, just a day ahead of the bi-monthly monetary policy review of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that came in the backdrop of rising inflation and a confirmation of the second quarter growth stumble by official data released November 29, the Nifty-50 was at a seven-week high of 24,708 points.

This means the Nifty is still about 6 per cent off its peak, but the rebound rally has bought some respite to nervous traders. The market seems to have shrugged off both the shock of slowing economic growth, and the RBI’s decision to withstand a rising domestic clamour for interest rate cuts and keep the repo rate unchanged, even as the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks have been slashing rates for a bit now.

Market experts say the growth slump had already been priced in over the previous weeks’ losing streak, and the RBI’s policy was hardly a surprise, with October’s inflation spiking to 6.2 per cent, and November unlikely to report a dramatic cooling. That perhaps explains the mere 0.1 per cent, or 30 points, drop in the Nifty last Friday after the RBI policy was unveiled.

The Nifty is up 13.5 per cent so far in 2024, and as the year draws to a close, what should investors expect in its last few weeks of trading?

In a report titled ‘Nifty: At The Crossroads’, Axis Securities dug into the past for a clue. In the past 25 years, the Nifty went up 80% of the time between Nov. 25 and Dec. 31, with average and median returns of 4.1 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively. The probability of an uptick shoots up to 100 per cent in the years of U.S. Presidential polls, with mean and median returns of 5.8 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively.

Bajaj Broking researchers also termed December one of the best months for the Indian market with the Nifty rising in 17 of the last 24 years. Based on historical patterns and current market analysis, the firm expects the markets will do well this month, and the Nifty could target levels between 24,800 and 25,200.

As of December 6, the index is up 3.2 per cent starting from the Nov. 25 trading session, and 2.2 per cent in this month so far. Of course, past performance is no assurance but if the last 24-25 years’ trend holds, there may well be some upside left for the Nifty in 2024.

While investors would hope for a Christmas bonus, Bajaj Broking has warned volatility could be higher this month thanks to domestic and global cues, like the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next rate move expected a week before the festival. So keep calm but watchful as you prepare to ring out the old. As for ringing in the new, the prospects for 2025 may hinge a lot on Mr. Trump’s action plan for the year (not to be confused with Project 2025 just yet). Enjoy 2024, till stocks last!