The image below shows that temperatures in the Tropics (23.5°S-23.5°N, 0-360°E) were very high during the second half of April 2024, and these very high temperatures were sustained during the first part of May 2024. The temperature was 26.9°C (or 80.42°F) on May 11, 2024, an anomaly of 1.1°C (or 1.98°F) from 1979-2000.
The image below shows the average monthly temperature anomaly over the past few years through April 2024, when the anomaly was 1.327°C (or 2.389°F) from 1951-1980.
Calculating the temperature rise
Note that the anomalies for the top image are calculated from 1979-2000 as a base, while anomalies for the above image are calculated from 1951-1980 as a base. When calculated from a pre-industrial base, these anomalies will be much higher.
A larger temperature rise comes with increasingly extreme weather events that cause widespread damage and threaten to cause even more loss of life of people, livestock and wildlife, crop failures and ecosystem collapse in the tropics and elsewhere.
Strong hurricanes can significantly add to the danger. More hurricanes are forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season than during 1950-2020, as illustrated by the above image, from an earlier post.
The IPCC keeps downplaying how dire the situation is we’re in
Meanwhile, the IPCC keeps giving the impression that the temperature rise is small, e.g. by using the period 1850-1900 as “reference”, despite mounting evidence that the temperature rise is much larger, especially when calculated from a genuinely pre-industrial base. The IPCC also keeps giving the impression that there was a carbon budget to divide among polluters, a carbon budget large enough for polluters to keep polluting for decades to come, whereas there is just a huge carbon debt for which there is no short-term remedy.
The prospect of further releases looks dire. The analysis gives estimates that the upper three meters of permafrost region soils store 1,000 Gt of soil organic carbon, while deeper deposits could store an additional amount of as much as 1,000 Gt C. The analysis concludes that the permafrost region is the largest terrestrial carbon and nitrogen pool on Earth. Miesner et al. warn that an additional 2822 Gt of organic carbon is stored in subsea Arctic shelf permafrost and Huang et al. warn that the top two meters of soil globally holds about 2300 Gt of inorganic carbon, which has been left out of environmental models, and 23 Gt of this carbon may be released over the next 30 years.
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• Just do NOT tell them the monster exists
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