A new study in the Lancet has found that 60% of adults and a third of children and adolescents will be living with overweight or obesity by 2050.

With further increases predicted within the next 5 years, international experts are for calling for urgent global policy reform and action to turn the tide on the growing public health crisis.

Lead author of the paper, Dr Jessica Kerr from Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia, warns the burden will cost the health system and economy billions.

“Despite these findings indicating monumental societal failures and a lack of coordinated global action across the entire developmental window to reduce obesity, our results provide optimism that this trajectory can be avoided if action comes before 2030,” Kerr says.

The study modelled overweight and obesity rates across 204 countries from 1990 to 2021, and forecasts from 2022 to 2050. It found that obesity rates in adults, children and adolescents have more than doubled since 1990.

A continuation of these trends would see substantial increases in obesity forecast between 2022 and 2030. By 2050, global rates of overweight and obesity among adults are expected rise to about 57.4% for men and 60.3% for women.

The largest increases are set to occur in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, driven by growing populations.

The findings also indicate that more recent generations are gaining weight faster than previous ones, with obesity also occurring earlier.

“Children and adolescents remain a vulnerable population within the obesity epidemic,” says Kerr.

“Complications associated with a high Body Mass Index (BMI), including diabetes, cancer, heart problems, breathing issues, fertility problems and mental health challenge, will negatively impact our children and adolescents now and into the future, even holding the potential to impact our grandchildren’s risk of obesity and quality of life for decades to come.”

But Kerr says it’s still possible to prevent a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents – if we act now.

“This is no time for business as usual. Many countries only have a short window of opportunity to stop much greater numbers shifting from overweight to obesity.

“Much stronger political commitment is needed to transform diets within sustainable global food systems and to support comprehensive strategies that improve people’s nutrition, physical activity and living environments, whether it’s too much processed food or not enough parks.” 

The study’s country-specific estimates on the stage, timing and speed of current and forecasted transitions in weight are available to guide governments and the public health community in taking this action.

Joint senior author of the paper, Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, US, says this can be used “to identify priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies.”