Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula is experiencing a resurgence of volcanic activity, with a series of eruptions marking the reactivation of a long-dormant faultline. On Sunday, molten lava flowed through the town of Grindavík, damaging infrastructure and forcing emergency responses. Scientists warn that this could signal the beginning of a long-term period of eruptions in the region.

A Faultline Reawakens After Centuries

Iceland sits atop the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where the Eurasian and North American tectonic plates are slowly pulling apart. This geological process drives the country’s frequent volcanic activity, but the Reykjanes Peninsula had been quiet for nearly 800 years. That changed in 2021, when the region saw its first eruption in centuries.

Since then, four additional eruptions have occurred, with the latest two—both affecting Grindavík—happening within a month of each other. Volcanologists believe this trend is likely to continue. Patrick Allard, a researcher at the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, noted that the region has entered a new phase of tectonic activity that could last for years, or even decades.

Recent Eruptions and Their Impact

The most recent eruption on March 3, 2024, came with little warning. Lava rapidly emerged from fissures, engulfing parts of Grindavík, a fishing town southwest of Reykjavik. Fortunately, most residents had been evacuated in advance due to earlier warnings.

Prior to this, the area saw an eruption in February 2024, which also occurred with minimal notice. Both events suggest that magma is accumulating just beneath the surface, poised to break through at any moment.

While these eruptions have been relatively small, their frequency indicates a pattern of ongoing volcanic activity. Unlike Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010, which released vast amounts of ash into the atmosphere and disrupted air travel across Europe, these recent events have been characterized by lava flows rather than explosive eruptions.

The Risk to Infrastructure and Tourism

One major concern is the proximity of eruptions to critical infrastructure. The Svartsengi geothermal power plant, which supplies electricity and water to around 30,000 people, lies near the affected area. If volcanic activity intensifies, efforts may be needed to safeguard the facility from potential damage.

Tourism, a key part of Iceland’s economy, has also been affected. The Blue Lagoon, one of the country’s most famous geothermal spas, has been forced to close due to the recent eruptions.

Authorities will need to assess the long-term viability of tourist operations in the region if the volcanic activity continues.

What Comes Next?

Predicting future eruptions remains a challenge. While scientists can monitor magma movements beneath the surface, the short lead times for recent eruptions suggest that the region may continue to see sudden and unpredictable activity.

There is also a possibility of an underwater eruption, which could pose additional risks. When lava meets seawater, it can generate explosive steam-driven eruptions, potentially sending ash into the atmosphere. If this occurs, air travel disruptions similar to those seen in 2010 could become a concern.