From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

Cliff Mass

The weather forecasts for the Los Angeles area were nearly perfect for Tuesday and Wednesday.  

Very strong winds and low relative humidity were predicted by the high-resolution models (such as the NWS HRRR model), with forecast winds greater than 60 mph.    The region was bone-dry with little rain during the past months.

The NOAA’s HRRR model prediction of wildfire potential on Monday indicated very high values in the Pacific Palisades region (see below).  It is hard to imagine doing better.

The National Weather Service put out an ominous forecast for the danger of wildfire. I blogged about it on Monday because I was quite concerned.

Yet with all this warning, a huge fire (actually three major fires) occurred with at least 5 deaths.  Over a thousand homes were destroyed.   The damage will easily be in the billions of dollars.  And the story is not over yet.

Did local governments take sufficient steps to stop this well-predicted disaster? Should Southern California Edison have been more aggressive in turning off power?

Update

The area of the Palisade fire this afternoon is shown below, with a current size of about 16,000 acres.

There are two other large fires, the Easton and Hurst fires.

The strong winds predicted on Monday were verified.. 

Below are the maximum wind gusts yesterday and today.  Up to 98 mph in the hills northeast of  Malibu yesterday and 89 mph today.

Also very low relative humidity.

Tuesday Max Winds

Wednesday Max Wind Through Noon

We know the fire started around 10:30 AM yesterday (Tuesday) not far from the Summit community (see map)

The big question is ignition.   What started the fire?

Considering the history of such fires,  the most probable origin is a sparking electrical line and the second is arson.  Eventually, we will know.

If a sparking electrical line was the cause, then Southern California Edison needs to explain why the power was not shut down to the entire threatened area.      As shown below, pictures from aircraft landing last night revealed that neighborhoods near the fires were still energized.  

Even Edison’s own maps this AM showed that large areas near the fires (and strong winds) were still energized.

Just frustrating….. such good weather predictions and still such unfortunate outcomes.  We need to do better.

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