Thiruvananthapuram

North-West India could do much better from well-endowed western disturbances capable of sustaining an intense cloud cover and triggering snowfall and rain along the hills in Jammu & Kashmir; Ladakh; Uttarakhand; and Himachal Pradesh and adjoining plains of the region in Rajasthan; Punjab; Haryana; and West Uttar Pradesh. 

The same holds true even in Central India (Gujarat; Madhya Pradesh; Maharashtra; Chhattisgarh; and Odisha) where hardly any rain has fallen since the dawn of New Year. December 2024, however, saw excess rain being recorded over North-West India (except Jammu & Kashmir) as well as Central India (except Gujarat and Maharashtra) after a particularly disastrous November. 

Bitter cold, dense fog

Entry and exit of western disturbances from Pakistan/Afghanistan continue to amplify winter weather over North-West India as bitter cold and dense fog wallop the region by turn. Minimum (night) temperatures are currently below freezing point over many parts of the hills, but may look up sooner than later with a fresh and intense western disturbance on the way. 

Minimum temperatures fell by 1-5⁰C over many parts of East Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and in isolated places of Jammu & Kashmir; Himachal Pradesh; West Rajasthan; Bihar; and Madhya Maharashtra during the 24 hours ending on Tuesday morning. This was after a prevailing warm western disturbance moved away, bringing colder Arctic winds into play in its wake.

Night mercury falls

On Monday, minimum (night) temperatures were below 0°C over many parts of Jammu, Kashmir & Ladakh; 0-5°C over Himachal Pradesh; 5-10°C over many parts of North-West India; 10-15°C over many parts of West, Central and East India. The lowest minimum over the plains was 5.9°C reported at Chittorgarh (East Rajasthan).

The minima has risen by 1-5⁰C over many parts of Uttar Pradesh in the last 24 hours ending Tuesday morning after the prevailing disturbance rolled into East India. Night temperatures have looked up by the same margin over parts of Chhattisgarh; Vidarbha; Assam & Meghalaya; and West Bengal & Sikkim. 

Warmer in East India

The causative disturbance was located around Patna, along the Purnia-Allahabad, Jhansi-Kota latitude across Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. It has brought light to moderate rain, thunderstorms and the odd hailstorm over the hills of North-East India on Tuesday, which is expected to continue into Wednesday

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of a fresh western disturbance moving across the UAE/Middle East and Iran on Tuesday. The US Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) model appeared to classify it as a rare low-pressure area as it looked to lock into position over the northern parts of the UAE/Oman and southern Iran and Pakistan by Thursday. 

Intense system on the way

It will carry some punch as it navigates through south-east Iran and drifts into west Pakistan by Friday, but may forfeit some moisture/cloud as it coasts into south-west Rajasthan early on Saturday morning. By Sunday, it will have weakened further after encountering the Himalayas and leaking moisture in snow/rain over the hills of North-West India and adjoining plains.

According to the IMD, the interaction of the western disturbance with easterly winds will affect North-West India for three days from Friday to Sunday. It may cause light to moderate rain/snow over the hills (Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand); and light rain over the plains of Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh and west Uttar Pradesh.