The year 2024 ended on a positive note for the Middle East as lower crude oil imports from Russia, particularly its flagship Urals grade, during December 2024 aided India’s traditional suppliers to increase their share of in-bound shipments to an 11-month high.

According to energy intelligence firm Vortexa, as shipments declined from Russia, the US and Saudi Arabia, Indian refiners compensated for those barrels from the Middle East, particularly Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as Africa, especially Angola.

Cumulative imports from the Middle East rose to their highest level since January last year, with its share surging to 51 per cent of the 4.45 million barrels per day (mb/d) procured by the world’s third largest crude oil importer during December 2024, on a provisional basis.

Xavier Tang, Market Analyst at Vortexa, pointed out that a shortage in imports from Russia prompted the rise in crude oil imports from the Middle East, as India’s imports of Russian Far East crude grades such as ESPO blend and Sokol have halted since November 2024.

“In December, Angola overtook the US as the fifth largest crude supplier to India while the Middle East’s share of India’s total crude oil imports grew to 51 per cent in December (2024), up from 41 per cent a month earlier (around 4.30 mb/d),” he told businessline.

In December 2023, the share of Middle East in India’s total crude oil imports (4.29 mb/d) stood at 48 per cent, a tad lower than 50 per cent (4.64 mb/d of total imports by India) during December 2022.

Russia’s loss is Middle East’s gain

India’s imports of Russian crude fell by 3 per cent and 13 per cent month over month in November and December 2024, respectively, prompting Indian refiners to find other sources, such as the Middle Eastern crude grades, to fill the shortfall, Tang explained.

“Total crude imports from Russia fell 13 per cent month-on-month in December, largely due to lower imports of Urals and Varandey,” he pointed out.

India’s crude imports from the Middle East rose to 2.3 mb/d, supported by Middle Eastern producers’ reduction in official selling prices (OSP).

As Russian cargos slipped to a 10-month low, crude oil imports from both Iraq and Kuwait hit a 11-month high in December. Besides, shipments from the UAE were also at a three-month high. However, imports from Saudi Arabia slipped to a four-month low.

Crude oil imports from the US slipped to a 11-month low with its share shrinking from 5 per cent in November 2024 to 1 per cent in December.

“As Russia’s crude exports have fallen to a two-year low of 3 m/bd, India will likely continue to source its crude supplies from the Middle East and Africa to replace the shortfall,” Tang projected.

Overall, India’s cumulative imports fell to their lowest in the last three-months. However, they rose by 4 per cent y-o-y.