Wheat production during the 2024-25 crop year (July-June) is expected to be 8.2 per cent higher, mainly on higher acreage and farmers opting to sow climate-resilient varieties, according to a survey presented at the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India (RFMFI) conclave in Goa on Monday.

Releasing the first industry estimate of the much-awaited wheat crop estimate, Nalin Rawal of Agriwatch said his organisation was “cautiously optimistic” that production this year will likely be 109.85 million tonnes (mt) compared with its estimate of 105.79 mt last year.

The production estimate is significant as the trade has been speculating on the production, particularly with weather being warmer in February. In 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture pegged the wheat crop size at 113.29 mt. 

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These projections, as of the third week of February, are in line with the RFMFI forecast of a 110 mt crop.  RFMFI President Navneet Chitlangia told a press conference at the two-day International Wheat Milling Conclave, ‘The Future of Milling — Vision 2030 and Beyond,’ being held here from Monday, that key wheat-growing areas have got rainfall under the influence of the Western disturbance. 

Climate-resilient varieties

Chitlangia said there was not much of an impact on the yield of wheat as farmers have cultivated “lots of climate-resilient varieties”. “Last year’s acreage was 312 lakh hectares (lh), this year, it is almost (record) 328 lh,” he said.

According to AgriWatch, wheat yield is also higher by 2 per cent this year. However, it does not rule out problems due to the hailstorm reported in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh last week. 

Production decline

The survey said that with the area in Uttar Pradesh dropping 0.4 per cent, its production is likely to decline 0.6 per cent. However, at 32.05 mt, it is the top producer in the country. 

A 4.2 per cent rise in acreage in Madhya Pradesh has resulted in its production increasing by over 8 per cent, while Rajasthan, Gujarat and West Bengal will see significant rise in production. 

The writer is at the conclave at the invitation of The Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India