In an unprecedented move, gold import estimates for November 2024 have been sharply lowered by the government by $5 billion to $9.84 billion from $14.86 billion announced last month, following requests made by the industry for a re-look at the unusually high numbers.

For the April-November 2024 period, estimated gold imports have gone down by $11.7 billion to $37.38 billion after the revision from $49.08 billion announced earlier, per figures revealed through searches on the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) website. In sheer volume terms, it would amount to a discrepancy of 130-140 tonnes in the April-November period.

The reasons for the steep downward revision have not been shared by the government. Industry sources estimate that it could be due to various calculation errors including double-counting of imports for use in SEZs, EOUs and Gift City that are subject to unique economic regulations.

“The government has not shared the reason for the revision so it is difficult to guess the exact problem. But there is an industry buzz on double counting of imports. There hasn’t been such a sharp revision in numbers at least in the past few decades,” industry sources told businessline.

Quick estimates of trade data for November 2024, released by the Commerce Department last month, showed a  331 per cent year-on-year surge in gold imports during November 2024, to $14.86 billion.

The sharp rise in gold imports registered in the initial data resulted in a record trade deficit of $37.84 billion in November 2024 which will now narrow due to the revision of data.

“The government must explain the rationale behind this revision. Was there an error in the initial data compilation, or did DGCI&S uncover discrepancies after further verification? Without a clear explanation, such revisions erode trust in official statistics, especially when no changes were made to the data compilation rules in November,” said trade expert Ajay Srivastava from the Global Trade Research Initiative. 

He added that this could give rise to concerns about possibility of similar errors in import data of other items.

India’s gold imports increased significantly since import duty was lowered to 6 per cent from 15 per cent in July 2024.