The tech giant claimed that its new AI model can predict both day-to-day weather and extreme events better than the top operational system.

Google DeepMind has revealed that its new artificial intelligence (AI) model, GenCast, can help to accurately predict the weather and detect extreme weather risks.

In a paper published yesterday (4 December) in Nature, the company presented its new high-resolution AI ensemble model.

Google DeepMind has claimed that the new model can provide better forecasts of both day-to-day weather and extreme events than the top operational system, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ ENS, up to 15 days in advance.

The company added that it will release the model’s code, weights and forecasts, in order to support the weather forecasting community.

“Because a perfect weather forecast is not possible, scientists and weather agencies use probabilistic ensemble forecasts, where the model predicts a range of likely weather scenarios,” said Google DeepMind in blogpost.

“Such ensemble forecasts are more useful than relying on a single forecast, as they provide decision-makers with a fuller picture of possible weather conditions in the coming days and weeks and how likely each scenario is.”

Google DeepMind also explained that in order to evaluate GenCast’s performance, it trained the model on historical weather data up to 2018 and tested it on data from 2019.

“We comprehensively tested both systems, looking at forecasts of different variables at different lead times – 1,320 combinations in total. GenCast was more accurate than ENS on 97.2pc of these targets, and on 99.8pc at lead times greater than 36 hours.”

Bringing AI to the weather forecasting table

Commenting further on the potential benefits of GenCast, Google DeepMind maintained that more accurate forecasts of risks of extreme weather can help officials to protect more lives, avert damage, and save money.

“When we tested GenCast’s ability to predict extreme heat and cold, and high wind speeds, GenCast consistently outperformed ENS.

“Now consider tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes and typhoons. Getting better and more advanced warnings of where they’ll strike land is invaluable.”

Given the number of dangerous weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall, over the past few years, it is understandable why AI is being used to improve weather forecasts. The prospect of using AI to predict the weather has even been welcomed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Google DeepMind originated as a research company and was acquired by Google in 2014. It later merged with the tech giant’s other research team, Google Brain, in order to spearhead the company’s AI efforts. DeepMind first made reference to weather prediction capabilities in November of 2023, when it claimed that its AI model GraphCast could make accurate, fast predictions of the weather and provide earlier warnings of extreme storms.

In October, Demis Hassabis, the co-founder and CEO of DeepMind, along with one of its senior research scientists, John M Jumper, made up two members out of a team of three scientists who were jointly awarded the 2024 Nobel Prize for Chemistry.

The trio were awarded the prestigious prize for their discoveries in protein design and protein structure prediction.

Yesterday, Google DeepMind announced Genie 2, a separate AI model which it claims can generate interactive worlds akin to those seen in modern video games.

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