Article content

(Bloomberg) — Claudia Sheinbaum is pulling out all the stops to support the roughly 5 million undocumented Mexicans living in the US. Her administration has launched a panic app for those detained, lined up more than 2,600 lawyers and nearly 2,200 consulate workers, and her foreign minister has met with officials in every border state. 

Article content

Article content

The rush of moves are meant to secure aid for migrants who are facing US President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to carry out “the largest deportation operation” in the nation’s history. The Mexican president’s efforts have taken off in the days and weeks since Trump threatened to impose economically debilitating tariffs on his southern neighbor — the flow of migrants being a bargaining chip, in addition to illegal drugs. 

Article content

“We will always defend Mexicans who are in the US,” Sheinbaum said Friday during a press conference. “In any dialogue that begins with the arrival of President Trump, one of the priorities will be the defense of our nationals in the US and the numbers that show how Mexicans are important for the US economy.” 

It’s a strong statement of support for migrants, and four months into Sheinbaum’s administration that’s a message she’s making clear to her constituents. Not to mention, the central bank counted $65 billion in remittances in the 12 months ending in November 2024, meaning that the money migrants send home is one of the country’s most important sources of income.

At the same time, Sheinbaum is following her predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s lead in cooperating with the US to maintain smooth relations. Regular deportation flights from the US to Mexico have continued and she’s preparing to receive more under Trump. That cooperation is one of her key pathways to avoiding tariffs that would cut Mexico’s gross domestic product by around 1%, according to Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Grupo Financiero Base.

Article content

Article content

“Tariffs of 25% would be equivalent to exiting the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. It would also imply a 7% drop in Mexico’s exports,” Siller said. “Mexico has no choice but to cooperate with Trump’s request to decrease migration of undocumented people and drug trafficking.”

Mexico Foreign Affairs Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente has become the face of the effort, making several trips to the US since early December to meet with local and state politicians and immigration officials in Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas. His ministry filled vacancies at the country’s 53 consulates in the US, with 2,187 workers and a team of 2,610 lawyers and 469 law firms ready to provide legal advice to migrants should deportations begin. De la Fuente has even visited detention centers. 

“We are prepared to defend our migrants, regardless of their immigration status and regardless of where they are located,” de la Fuente said Monday from the Mexican border state of Sonora. His ministry also added in a statement that its priority in case of deportations is to “respect the integrity and human rights of Mexicans.”

Article content

Deportee Support

There are 11 million undocumented people living in the US, and deporting all of them would be a logistical and economic nightmare. That’s part of why Yael Schacher, director for the Americas and Europe at Refugees International, doesn’t think Trump will actually deport all the undocumented Mexican migrants living in the US. 

“I think there’s going to be some very targeted efforts,” she said. “If they really start going after that many people, there would be pushback in the US for the economic impact of losing all those workers.”

Regardless of what happens, Sheinbaum’s administration says it’s prepared to assist Mexican migrants from either side of the border. 

In addition to fully staffing consulates and lining up legal help, the Foreign Ministry said it’s simplifying the process for Mexicans in the US to request key documents such as birth certificates they may need to regularize their legal status.

The Foreign Ministry and the new Agency of Digital Transformation and Telecommunications also created a panic app called “Botón de Contacto,” or Contact Button, to provide assistance to Mexicans facing imminent detention in the US. The app will operate 24/7 and will put users in contact with their nearest consulate or ministry staff.

Article content

The government is also preparing to aid its citizens in cases of abuses during deportations, as well as provide them with health and education services, and if necessary, job opportunities, once they’re back in Mexico. It’s readied roughly two dozen shelters in border cities. 

“Those who decide to return, or are forced to return, will be welcomed with open arms and will be immediately incorporated into our labor force,” de la Fuente said Monday. 

Unknown Magnitude

Mexico has already been accepting its deported nationals from the US. In 2024, it received 190,491 of them, according to data from the Interior Ministry’s migration policy unit. That’s a decrease of 11% compared with the 214,838 deportees it received the previous year.

Should Trump follow through with massive deportations, Sheinbaum has said she is ready to receive Mexican nationals — but that the nation will not serve as a “safe third country” for migrants of other nationalities. That’s something that would be particularly challenging with countries such as Cuba and Venezuela, with which the US does not have diplomatic relations. 

Article content

Schacher is worried about the potential long-term detention of that subset of migrants. 

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the Trump administration uses some military bases in the US and possibly even in places like Guantanamo to keep people there for a long time.” Maybe the US will pressure Central American countries like Guatemala or El Salvador to take Venezuelans and Cubans, she added. 

Despite all the planning and “informal” interactions with Trump’s team, de la Fuente has said Mexico has been given few details about the magnitude of the deportations. 

“We don’t know what’s going to happen and it’s worrying, because I have my family here,” said Kevin, 29, an undocumented migrant who has worked as a landscaper in San Antonio, Texas, for two years. 

“If they deport me,” he said, “I’m coming back.”

—With assistance from Maya Averbuch.

Article content