For the first time since 2022, India’s average monthly wireless data usage per subscriber showed a slight dip, as per the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India’s (TRAI) performance indicator report. As per the report for July-September 2024, data usage decreased to 21.10 GB per month from 21.30 GB in the previous quarter, a 0.93 per cent decline. The last such a dip occurred in 2022 when data usage was at 17.11 GB in the quarter ending in December, a 0.40 per cent decrease from the 17.18 GB data usage recorded in the previous September ending quarter.

As per the latest report, total wireless data usage volume decreased by 0.02 per cent from 56,183 PB during the June-ending quarter to 56,174 PB during the September-ending quarter. Out of total data wireless usage, only 2G and 5G data usage increased by 40 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively. 3G declined by 3.3 per cent, and 4G declined by 3.1 per cent. While some experts say the decline may be attributed to the recent tariff hike by telcos, others raise the possibility of whether data usage may have reached a saturation point.

When asked about the possible cause for this change, Mahesh Uppal, Director of Com First (India), said that the impact on usage may be associated with the recent increase in service rates over the last year. This is in line with Independent telecom expert Parag Kar’s assessment, who associated the decline with the strain caused by recent price hikes. This argument is also in line with the 2022 decline since telcos revised the data plans for 4G and 5G around that time.

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However, Uppal also pointed out another data point to consider which was the increase in the use of wireline data.

“This number [average wireless data usage] by itself would be an incomplete picture. There is a slow but significant increase in the use of wireline data for particularly heavy users. If you look at the wireline data of the TRAI this month and for the last few months, that is where some of the increase is happening since more people are using fiber. That number is tiny compared to the number of wireless users, but it’s still a visible trend. This would also impact heavier users,” he said.

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By this, Uppal referred to subscriber numbers in the latest TRAI report, which showed that wireline subscribers increased 5.20 per cent over the previous quarter, whereas wireless subscribers declined 1.44 per cent over the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, Kartik Raja, Founder of Mozark AI digital experience testing platform, raised the question of whether the change in usage should be attributed to data usage hitting peak levels rather than changing subscriber numbers.

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“I’m also very surprised as to why there is a reduction in the data usage numbers. Has this just [number] peaked? Has everything peaked? This may be why even operators are raising prices, because they just find user data usage has probably reached that level of inelastic demand. But that would be just difficult to predict today, right? You’ll have to wait for one more quarter,” he said. The notion of inelasticity of demand for wireless services was highlighted by Kar, as well as a potential hurdle for telcos in the future.