Despite a positive Q4 FY 2025 earnings report on February 26, Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) is still on a rather steep downward trajectory as of the first week of March.

Although analysts reacted positively to the quarterly results, NVDA shares ended February below the 200-day moving average (MA). The last time this bearish signal occurred was January 2023.

In addition, on Monday, March 3, President Trump announced that the tariffs he announced on February 1 would come into effect a day later. China immediately retaliated — unsurprisingly, the markets reacted with a sell-off.

By press time on March 4, Nvidia stock was changing hands at a price of $114, after an 8.69% crash on the daily chart. 

Over the past week, prices have fallen by 12.37%, bringing year-to-date (YTD) losses up to 15.11%. This mark also represents a 6-month low for NVDA shares.

What’s more, the losses could continue. Renowned technical analyst basictradingtv outlined a case for an almost 40% drop in the tech stock’s price in a recent TradingView post.

Will NVDA stock crash to $70?

After years-long moves to the upside, which have resulted in a roughly 1,000% gain in each case, NVDA stock tests a long-term resistance line charted by connecting the aforementioned highs unsuccessfully — following which price falls below a more localized support level, and subsequently crashes.

A couple of months ago, Nvidia stock retested the resistance trendline once more. Since then, prices have gone down — and if the researcher’s thesis is correct, the decline should continue. 

Once the price point that constituted a test of resistance is taken into account, this latest decline, at least per basictradingtv, could see the price of NVDA shares dip to as low as $70. This would equate to a 38.59% drop from current prices.

That being said, readers would do well to remember that price action does not occur in a vacuum. Technical analysis, for all its merits, is just one method among many. As bearish as the case put forward by the technical analyst is, Wall Street researchers remain almost unanimously bullish on Nvidia stock. 

Bernstein analyst Tom O’Malley doubled down on a previously set $185 price target on March 4. O’Malley noted that the stock is trading below parity relative to the SOX semiconductor index, and at only a slight premium compared to the S&P — to be more precise, the lowest premium the stock has seen since 2016. The researcher urged investors to buy the dip.

The chipmaker enjoys robust demand from a variety of healthy industries, has a solid track record of outperforming expectations, and even export controls have done little to stymie demand. While Nvidia stock might well recede even further, at present, the company’s long-term growth prospects appear to be intact.

Our Nvidia stock chart analysis

At present, the $110 mark represents the next level of support. A close below that level could easily lead to a further drop down to $100, as investors take profits and move their capital to safer assets in the wake of a budding trade war and market-wide uncertainty.

Conversely, a close above $110 could serve to alleviate concerns and ignite a surge back to $120. Investors should keep an eye out for the $123 and $129 price points, which equate to the stock’s 5-day and 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

Nvidia stock has underperformed the S&P 500 since the start of the year. Whereas the index has marked a 0.32% decline on a year-to-date basis, the price of NVDA shares has dropped by 15.11% in the same period.

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