Parts of West Coast, especially Konkan & Goa, along with those in Marathwada and Vidarbha may see day temperatures rise to maximum on Tuesday, according to ensemble predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts. 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said hot and humid weather may prevail over Konkan & Goa for three days and over the Coastal Karnataka for four days from today (Tuesday) as 2024-25 winter gradually transitions into pre-monsoon and summer. 

Thunderstorms season

The ongoing changeover from winter will set off seasonal thunderstorms (called nor’westers or Kal Baisakhi) over East and North-East India known for their destructive impact on the region from high winds, hail, lightning and thunderstorms. 

On Tuesday morning, a western disturbance docked in as a trough over West Pakistan along a track that links Quetta and Multan (both in Pakistan) with Sri Ganganagar in West Rajasthan. The southern flanks of belt of associated north-westerlies ventured as far as south as to touch Veraval, Surat, Jalgaon, Akola, Nagpur, Raipur and Rourkela in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh. 

Rain, thunderstorms 

Heating of land will take place below this belt. The IMD said on Tuesday the western disturbance may bring fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall or snowfall, isolated thunderstorms and lightning over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh, while it will be isolated to scattered light to moderate over an already avalanche-hit Uttarakhand. 

This is even as next western disturbance will check into the international border in another five days (from March 9, Sunday next). Under its influence, isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall to snowfall is likely over Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand from Sunday. Towards east, a cyclonic circulation lies over north-east Assam and neighbourhood. 

Cooler over Rajasthan

The IMD saw gradual fall in maximum temperatures by about 2-3°C over Rajasthan during next three days as the western disturbance brings moisture and clouds into play over the region. They may rise by a similar extent during subsequent two days as the disturbance moves further to the east over West Uttar Pradesh and adjoining East India, taking away the cloud cover.

No significant change in maximum temperatures is seen over east Gujarat until tomorrow (Wednesday) but they may fall gradually by about 2-3°C thereafter under the influence of the disturbance .No significant change in maximum temperatures is likely over the rest parts of India during next 4-5 days, with clouds keeping temperature over East India moderate. 

Rainfall surpluses

Rainfall recorded during the first three days during pre-monsoon (from March 1) saw massive spikes over North-West India from an active western disturbance that has since moved away, and over South Peninsula from an easterly wave as heavy to very heavy falls lashed disparate spots over the regions during these days. In contrast, other areas remained bone dry. 

Rainfall received in South Peninsula was at +241 per cent till Monday, and over North-West India +48 per cent. East and North-East India posted a deficit of -25 per cent while Central India lagged quite a distance with practically nil rain (a large deficit of -99 per cent). Rain surplus in the south was built on a solid base of +6,950 per cent in Lakshadweep; +808 per cent in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal; and +370 per cent in Kerala & Mahe while Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh drew a blank. 

Spread out in North-West 

In North-West, rainfall was better spread out with Uttarakhand (+324 per cent) and Himachal Pradesh (+184 per cent) running away with top honours. West Rajasthan chipped in with +80 per cent; Punjab, +72 per cent; Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, +42 per cent; and West Uttar Pradesh, +14 per cent. These records risked being wiped out unless supported by incremental rainfall.