La Nina weather will emerge during January-March 2025 but it will be relatively weak, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director-General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said on Wednesday.

However, rainfall during the period will be below normal across the country, though it would be higher than normal this month, he said addressing media on the weather outlook for January-March.

The IMD’s forecast is in line with the World Meteorological Organization’s projection of a weak La Nina emerging during January-March 2025. Last week, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will drop below the La Nina threshold in January. 

“There is a probability of La Nina emerging in January. The Nino 3.4 index is -0.8°C since December,” the IMD Director-General said. SSTs have been below -0.4°C since August.

13 weather systems in 2024

Stating that 13 weather systems had developed in 2024 compared with the normal 11-12, he said four of them were cyclonic stroms, six were depressions and there were three land depressions.

Rainfall during January-March will be lower than 86 per cent of the long-period average (LPA). In particular, the northern region — comprising Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Punjab and Rajasthan — will receive below-normal rainfall.

The southern peninsula will receive above-normal rainfall during the period, he said.

Above-normal min temp

In January, the country will receive above-normal rainfall barring the north-western part. “The country will receive 122 per cent of the LPA rainfall,” Mohapatra said.

The minimum temperature will be above normal during January-March across the country, except in parts of eastern, north-eastern and western India. 

The maximum temperature in January will be above normal in many parts except the north-west and central plains. 

On the impact of below-normal rainfall during January-March, the IMD Director-General said details have been shared with the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare. The impact of the weather on crops will depend on their types and state of growth.

While issuing its forecast every five days, IMD consults the Ministry of Agriculture on the advisory for farmers, he said.