Social media platform X is buzzing with rumors that Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, could announce his resignation today. This speculation has driven up odds on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Polymarket and Kalshi Bet on Justin Trudeau’s Step Down

According to the latest data on Polymarket, the odds of Trudeau resigning before April under the bet, “Justin Trudeau out as leader of Liberals before April?” have risen to 98%, with a current market volume of $46,084.

 

LIVE: Justin Trudeau’s odds of leaving office before April have shot up to 99% pic.twitter.com/BPeOqmo4Cu

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) January 6, 2025

 

Similarly, Kalshi’s bet “Will Trudeau resign as leader of the Liberals before April?” now shows a 97% likelihood of a “yes,” with a total series volume of $18,806.

 

 

The rumors intensified following media reports that Trudeau is expected to announce his resignation as early as Monday. These reports suggest the Prime Minister is facing mounting pressure from a caucus revolt and dismal public opinion polls that point to a potential Liberal defeat by Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Sources indicate Trudeau is likely to clarify his plans before a crucial national caucus meeting on Wednesday.

Notably, the Canadian dollar has surged by 35% following these developments, rebounding after losing 8% of its purchasing power against the US dollar over the past year.

However, amid these rumors, Justin Trudeau’s X account tells a different story. He recently posted about “a big win from 2024,” highlighting that nearly a million Canadian families benefited from reduced child care fees thanks to his National Child Care Program. He also shared plans for similar cost-cutting measures in 2025.

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