The Real GDP growth for FY25 has been revised downward to 6.80% in the latest round of the RBI’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on Macroeconomic Indicators, down from 6.90 per cent in the previous round.

The SPF panellists lowered their FY26 real GDP growth expectations to 6.6 per cent, down from 6.7 per cent in the previous round (October).

They placed GDP growth forecasts in the range of 6.1-7.7 per cent for FY25 and in the range of 6.0-7.2 per cent for FY26, per the Survey of SPF, which ws conducted by RBI.

The SPF’s real GDP growth forecast for FY25 is higher than the RBI’s revised forecast, which has been cut from 7.2 per cent to 6.6 per cent.

The annual growth in real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) and real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) for FY25 is expected to be 6.2 per cent (6.5 per cent in the previous round) and 7.9 per cent (unchanged), respectively.

The Survey panelists revised the real gross value added (GVA) growth projection down marginally to 6.7 per cent for FY25 and 6.4 per cent for FY26.

In terms of quarterly path, real GDP growth (y-o-y) is expected at 6.9 per cent during third and fourth quarters of FY25 (previous round projection: 6.9-7.0 per cent range during second to fourth quarters) and, subsequently, it was expected to moderate to 6.6-6.7 per cent during Q1 and Q2 of FY26 (projection unchanged from the previous survey).

Inflation

As per the regular survey, annual headline inflation, based on CPI-Combined, is expected at 4.8 per cent during FY25 (4.5 per cent in the previous survey) and at 4.3 per cent during FY26 (4.4 per cent).

Headline CPI inflation (y-o-y) is expected at 5.5 per cent in Q3:2024-25; it is projected to decrease over the subsequent three quarters to remain between 4.2-4.6 per cent.

The SPF’s revised FY25 CPI inflation projection of 4.8 per cent for FY25 aligns with RBI’s revised projection. RBI upped its FY25 CPI inflation forecast to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent earlier.

CPI inflation, excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco and intoxicants, and fuel and light, is expected at 3.8 per cent during Q3:2024-25; it is projected to rise successively to 4.2-4.3 per cent in the subsequent three quarters.