After Trump’s statements on the strategic reserve in cryptocurrencies, and the rebound of Bitcoin’s price, on Deribit the hypothesis of a return to $100,000 is gaining traction.

According to Amberdata, the number of active positions on call options with a strike at $100,000 has increased by 1,163 contracts (more than 100 million dollars) on Deribit. This is the highest figure among all options listed on the exchange. 

Deribit: record of call options on Bitcoin with a strike at $100k after Trump’s announcement on the strategic crypto reserve

Deribit is absolutely one of the main markets in the world for options on the price of Bitcoin.

This is a professional-level platform for the exchange of crypto derivative products, and in particular options. 

At this moment, the Open Interest on Bitcoin options expiring at the end of the month on Deribit reaches almost 11 billion dollars. Considering, instead, all expirations and all crypto, it rises to more than 24 billion dollars, out of a total slightly below 32 billion across all crypto exchanges. 

Note that at this moment 66% of the Open Interest is on call options (i.e., purchase), while on put options it is only at 34%. 

Options are derivatives that allow those who purchase them to sell (put) or buy (call) an asset at a given moment at a certain predefined price. 

The options on Bitcoin

After yesterday’s statements by Trump, the call option with a strike of $100,000 on Deribit recorded the largest jump in terms of open interest in the last 24 hours.

This means that many speculators have purchased call options on Bitcoin relative to that price. 

Furthermore, yesterday’s rebound also reversed the trend, with call options ending up surpassing puts in Open Interest.

Note that yesterday the rebound of BTC stopped at $95,000, so the jump in calls with a strike at $100,000 clearly signals the spread of optimism. 

However, it should not be forgotten that yesterday’s rebound was partly caused by the forced liquidations of leveraged short positions, and this has generated inefficiencies that may need to be addressed in the coming days. 

The “Trump put” 

The markets, however, seem to be starting to convince themselves of the existence of a sort of so-called “Trump put“. 

In other words, it is considered possible that from now on, the President and his administration might intervene in favor of the crypto markets during moments of particular difficulty.

To tell the truth, last week the price of Bitcoin did suffer a bit, but without even returning to pre-election levels. The real problem, however, was the altcoin, and it seems that Trump cares about these as well.

And so many traders are betting on a possible return of Bitcoin’s price to $100,000, even if in the meantime the inefficiencies mentioned above could be filled with a return well below $90,000. 

However, this does not change the fact that $100,000 is once again becoming the level that everyone will be watching in the coming days or weeks. 

It should not be forgotten that on Friday, March 7, the first Crypto Summit will be held at the White House by President Trump himself with the members of the Presidential Working Group on criptovalute, and in particular with the crypto czar of the Trump administration, David Sacks.

This could mean that while on one hand there might be slightly bear pressures, on the other hand there could also be bull pressures, even in the short term. 

The problem of the strategic reserve

However, one should not expect the establishment of the USA’s strategic reserve in cryptocurrencies to be announced on March 7. 

The problem is that, having wanted to add some altcoins, it will become more difficult to get this decision through Congress. 

As has already happened in recent weeks, a potential disappointment due to a decision that is then not announced could once again create discontent in the crypto markets. 

While on one hand it is still possible that in the end such a strategic reserve will indeed be established, the timing might not be particularly short. 

However, if they were to start with a reserve in only BTC, the times could shorten significantly. 

Today, the markets do not seem to believe that the establishment of such a reserve is possible in the short term, precisely because of the addition of altcoins. If, on the other hand, on March 7th a two-phase path were announced, with the first phase focused only on BTC, then the reaction of the markets could be much more positive. 

In the current state of affairs, on Polymarket they give only a 20% probability that Trump will succeed in establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days, and it is reasonable to imagine that the timeline could extend even further if he decides to immediately also go for altcoins.