Earthquakes have long been considered unpredictable, but a new study suggests that solar activity could play a role in triggering seismic events. Researchers from the University of Tsukuba in Japan have identified a link between sunspot cycles and earthquake occurrences, providing fresh insights into how the sun’s fluctuations may influence the Earth’s crust.

A Cosmic Connection To Seismic Activity

The sun follows an 11-year cycle, marked by varying levels of sunspots, solar flares, and shifts in its magnetic field. During its most active phase, known as solar maximum, the sun emits increased solar radiation, which affects Earth’s atmosphere and climate.

Scientists now believe these changes extend beyond the weather. Solar-driven temperature shifts alter the properties of rocks and underground water movement, making the crust more susceptible to fractures.

In regions where tectonic stress is already high, these fluctuations might serve as the final push needed to trigger an earthquake.

Tracing The Connection Between Solar Cycles And Earthquakes

The idea that solar activity might influence earthquakes first emerged in a 2022 study by Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha and Yoshito Hirata at the University of Tsukuba. Their research revealed a correlation between earthquake frequency and sunspot activity, but the underlying cause remained unclear.

To explore the connection further, the researchers developed a computational model combining historical sunspot data, surface temperature records, and earthquake statistics.

Their findings revealed that rising surface temperatures, driven by solar radiation, increased the probability of shallow earthquakes occurring in the upper crust.

How Solar Heat Could Influence Seismic Activity?

Earth’s crust is highly sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure. Heat from increased solar activity causes rocks to expand, contract, and weaken over time, making them more prone to fracturing.

Also, variations in rainfall and snowmelt, influenced by solar cycles, can redistribute pressure along fault lines, subtly increasing seismic risk.

While tectonic forces remain the primary cause of earthquakes, researchers suggest that these external factors act as triggers, increasing the likelihood of an event in already stressed regions.

A New Approach To Earthquake Prediction

Currently, earthquake prediction remains one of the biggest challenges in geophysics. While scientists can estimate where earthquakes are likely to occur, pinpointing when they will strike is much more difficult due to the sheer number of variables involved.

By incorporating solar activity and temperature fluctuations into existing seismic prediction models, researchers hope to improve the accuracy of earthquake forecasts.

Since shallow earthquakes are the most affected by these changes, this method could be particularly useful for regions with frequent surface-level seismic activity.

However, scientists emphasize that this is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. Earthquakes are primarily driven by tectonic forces, but external influences like solar heat and atmospheric changes could help refine predictions.

A New Frontier In Seismic Research

The study highlights the complex relationship between the Earth and the sun, showing that even minor variations in solar radiation can influence geological processes. While more research is needed to fully understand this connection, it opens a new direction in earthquake science—one that integrates space weather and solar physics into seismology.