With a number of deadlines for open access (OA) coming up in 2025 and beyond, the race is on for many publishers to make the transition to OA. Simon Linacre asks, are these targets achievable?

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Traditionally, September and October have always been one of the busiest – and most interesting – times to be in the publishing industry. Back in the day, September would be the deadline for the first of the following year’s issues to be collated by editors, while in more recent times big events like the ALPSP Conference, the Frankfurt Book Fair and Open Access Week have set the agenda for the remainder of the year and beyond.

In 2024, this period has perhaps more intrigue than most given a number of deadlines and political events occurring in the next 12 months or so, many of them revolving around open access (OA) and its further adoption. But will things pan out the way people anticipate, and are there solutions that can be used to help forge a path through so many uncertainties about the future?

Conference season

At the recent ALPSP Conference in Manchester in September, there was a good deal of discussion about how open access had developed this year, and its potential progress in 2025 and beyond. Perhaps unsurprisingly at a conference full of publishers, the mood was a little downbeat when it came to the theme of OA, but not for the reasons one might think. Reading between the lines, there was a frustration at the shifting sands many felt they had to constantly navigate, in the shape of changing or newly introduced policies, and a sense that innovation was being stymied as a result.

For example, the tone for OA seemed to have been set by the JISC report on transformative agreements (TAs) which was published in the UK earlier in 2024. This made for somber reading, with the headline prediction that while the UK’s transitioning to OA was faster than most countries, based on the journal flipping rates observed between 2018–2022 it would take at least 70 years for the big five publishers to flip their TA titles to OA. 

With this in mind, the fact that there were deadlines for Plan S set for 2025 around transition that seemed unlikely to be met, and with the OSTP memo in the US mired in committees and a potential change on the cards in the White House, the belief among many publishers was that the move to OA was not happening at the pace or in the direction that many thought it would.

Geopolitical calculations

In addition to what is happening in the UK, Europe and in the US, events further afield are also causing publishers to take stock of their medium-to-long-term strategies. The publication of authors based in Russia has declined sharply since the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, and collaboration between US authors and those based in China have also decreased, possibly due to policy changes by the Chinese government favoring publication in China-based journals, but also potentially due to fears about research security issues in the US and in other countries. 

China’s move to OA is also happening at a much lower level than many countries, which is significant as it takes up such a high percentage of published articles, passing the US a few years ago as the world’s most prolific publisher of research articles. As a result, despite the increase in the number of TAs being agreed with universities, publishers are still seeing a high degree of uncertainty in the transition to OA.

Forward motion

This uncertainty will be in the back of publishers’ minds when celebrating OA Week this year, coming as it does every year on the back of major conferences such as ALPSP and Frankfurt, and in the midst of fine tuning budgets for the following year. At Digital Science, we understand this predicament given how closely we work with publishers as customers, and also because many of us have worked in the publishing industry ourselves. As such, we have been analyzing how Digital Science solutions can help publishers steer a path forward on OA and transformative agreements, and have created this use case for Dimensions in support of our community.

This resource has been designed to reflect the period of change that the publishing industry is undergoing, supporting the need for publishers to create, evaluate and negotiate TAs by delivering a strong range of historical and predictive data through Dimensions. Using the Dimensions database – which now holds data on almost 150m publications as well as details on funding, grants and patents – publishers can easily find and analyze data surrounding authorship across categories such as country, geography, institution and funder. Understanding a given discipline’s current or future state of play can complement publishers’ own data and inform their strategies accordingly.

Solid state

The theme of this year’s OA Week – ‘Community over Commercialization’ – is a deliberately provocative one, and should engender a good deal of debate during the week and beyond. It should also broaden the conversation to adjacent areas such as open research and open science, as here we have policy and geopolitics making waves for everyone involved in the research ecosystem. 

The origin of some of these ripples can be seen in two upcoming reports from Digital Science. At the end of October, a new report on Research Transformation includes substantial input from those involved in academia on how OA is impacting on their work, while November sees the ninth annual State of Open Data report, tracking how researchers see open data issues developing as part of their work. Without giving too much away, both of these reports call for greater awareness of – and support using – the myriad of fast-developing technologies that are starting to impact academics and their institutions. As such, the community of interest that supports OA Week every year needs to work together in the ecosystem they all inhabit if those OA deadlines are to be met.

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